Courtesy of Bouchaib El Hassani
- Lyft shares is set to report earnings for the first time as a public company on Tuesday afternoon.
- The report comes days before rival Uber is expected to debut on the public market.
- Key measures to watch include active riders, total rides, and bookings, analysts say.
- Watch Lyft trade live.
The market has not been kind to Lyft.
To place Lyft’s rotten performance in perspective, consider its first month of trading relative to other large initial public offerings in the US. Its 20.5% decline was the second-worst on record, only better than Facebook‘s 21% drop seven years ago, according to Dealogic.
Analysts attribute the drop to a few things. Wall Street is concerned over Lyft’s uncertain path to profitability (it lost $911 million last year) and competition from rival Uber, which is expected to price its IPO later this week.
Here’s what Lyft reported, compared with what analysts polled by Bloomberg forecast:
- Adjusted net loss per share: $9.02 versus a loss between $7.93 and $14.14 expected.
- Revenue: $776.0 million versus $738.5 million expected.
- Second-quarter 2019 adjusted EBITDA guidance: $270 million to $280 million versus a loss of $320.41 million expected.
- Second-quarter 2019 revenue guidance: $800 million to $810 million versus $782.15 million expected.
When the report drops, analysts say they will be looking at Lyft’s number of active riders, total rides, take rates, and bookings. Another important metric is revenue per active rider, which comes from simply dividing quarterly revenue by active riders for that quarter. That’s important because analysts expect that measure’s growth is will flatline in the coming years.
Gross bookings growth is also expected to slow, according to UBS analysts’ projections.
To be fair, the majority of analysts are bullish. Of those polled by Bloomberg, 15 say “buy,” eight rec commend “hold,” and two suggest “sell.”
Raymond James analyst Justin Patterson, who has a price target of $85 — 45% above where shares are currently trading — says he expects user growth and frequency to “remain healthy,” and believes the company has room to grow in both the US and Canada.
“Net, we continue to expect LYFT to trade on 1) positive revisions to revenue and gross profit and 2) modest multiple expansion from investors becoming comfortable with TAM and competition,” he said.
Tuesday’s earnings report comes as Uber and Lyft drivers prepare for strikes this week to protest pay and working conditions. The consternation comes down to a metric known as the take rate, which is the percentage of a driver’s fare that the ride-hailing compan keeps.
Lyft shares were volatile on Tuesday, rallying by as much as 1.7% and falling by as much 4.2%.
Markets Insider will be covering Lyft’s first-quarter earnings live. Please check back for updates.
Read more Lyft coverage from Markets Insider and Business Insider: