Vermont is hosting one of the 16 Democratic party primaries and caucuses on Super Tuesday. Polls close at 7 PM Eastern time, and 16 pledged delegates are up for grabs.
We’ll have live vote counts and results happening in real time once polls close.
Vermont primary results:
Catch up on live coverage from the primary:
What’s at stake in the primary?
Vermont has been allocated 16 pledged delegates who will go to the Democratic National Convention in Milwaukee this July to select the nominee. Of those 16, five delegates will be allocated proportionally based on the state-wide vote, while the remaining 11 will be won at the congressional district level.
Candidates must reach a 15% threshold in order to win delegates at both the state-wide and congressional district level.
Who does the polling say is ahead?
Hometown Senator Bernie Sanders is expected to run away with the Vermont primary, meaning the state could be one of the earliest calls of the night.
Polling in the state was thin, with RealClearPolitics only citing one poll of 332 likely voters ahead of the Vermont primary.
That poll from Vermont Public Radio shows Sanders leading the field with 51% support in his home state. The closest candidate behind Sanders was former South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who was polling at 13%, but has since dropped out of the race. In third was Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who at 9%, was the only other candidate remotely close to reaching the 15% threshold necessary to win delegates.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast, Sanders has a >99% chance to win the Vermont primary, with Warren again his closest challenger. In 80% of their simulations, FiveThirtyEight projects Sanders to win between 50-75% of the vote.
While Sanders is widely expected to win Vermont, the race has changed drastically in just the past few days, meaning a shake-up is possible in the order of candidates below him. After Biden’s strong showing in the South Carolina primary, three candidates — Buttigieg, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, and Tom Steyer — have dropped out of the race. Klobuchar and Buttigieg went on to endorse Biden at a rally in Texas on Monday night, which could swing some of the voters they were projected by Vermont Public Radio to take in the state in former vice president’s favor.
While Sanders will still likely run away with the contest, the biggest thing to watch in the state will likely be whether any other candidate clears 15% of the vote either statewide or at the congressional district level, which would prevent Sanders from taking a clean sweep of the 16 pledged delegates at stake.